REPORTS U.S. DROUGHT TO WORSEN IN SOUTHWEST AND
May 17, 2007 — On the cusp of the summer season, NOAA meteorologists are anticipating major drought concerns in sections of the U.S. possibly fueling an already busy wildfire season. In today's updates of the U.S. Drought Monitor and the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, NOAA scientists are indicating extreme drought to plague areas from Southern California into western Arizona as summer approaches. Meanwhile, drought conditions in the Southeast are expected to show some improvement in the coming weeks and months. (Click NOAA image for larger view of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
U.S. Drought Monitor
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
For other parts of the Southeast, improvement is less certain, especially with no significant relief showing up on medium-range weather forecasts. The latest monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts show no tendency for below-normal conditions to persist past June, and historical comparisons with past spring droughts, along with summer climate patterns, suggest some reason for cautious optimism for improvement by summer’s end. Although tropical weather systems can lead to fast recovery of drought, NOAA cannot speculate at this time as to where any systems will strike in coming months, so location and timing of drought relief is uncertain.
Little drought relief is expected from California into the Great Basin. "Since the long dry season is only just beginning for California, prospects for relief are distant and may have to wait for late autumn," said Douglas LeComte, NOAA Climate Prediction Center drought specialist. But, Arizona could experience some relief during the monsoon season, which begins in July.
Farther north drought conditions are expected to persist in Montana, Wyoming, the western Dakotas and western Nebraska but are likely to improve in the Upper Midwest.
Although drought is not predicted in Alaska, large areas have been unseasonably dry and any future warm, dry weather could lead to a serious wildfire season over the interior. Also, dryness may transition to drought in Hawaii, mainly in the leeward areas.
Origin of Current Conditions
The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated every Thursday. NOAA's next update for the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook will be on June 7. People in affected areas are advised to keep abreast of the latest local news and information. NOAA has a variety of information online to help keep you safe.
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