ISSUES UNSCHEDULED EL NIÑO ADVISORY
13, 2006 — Scientists at the NOAA
Climate Prediction Center reported today that El
Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and
are likely to continue into early 2007. Ocean temperatures increased
remarkably in the equatorial Pacific during the last two weeks. "Currently,
weak El Niño conditions exist, but there is a potential for this
event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," said Vernon
Kousky, NOAA's lead El Niño forecaster. (Click NOAA satellite
image for larger view of sea surface temperatures anomalies as of Sept.
11, 2006. Click here
for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
Also, the development of weak El Niño conditions helps explain why this Atlantic hurricane season has been less active than was previously expected. El Niño typically acts to suppress hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea region. However, at this time the El Niño impacts on Atlantic hurricanes are small. "We are still in the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season, and conditions remain generally conducive for hurricane formation," said Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.
El Niño effects are likely to develop over North America during
the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures
over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United
States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the
U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can
be expected in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest.
In 2007 NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, celebrates 200 years of science and service to the nation. Starting with the establishment of the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. The agency is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
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