ISSUES U.S. WINTER OUTLOOK UPDATE
Oct. 20, 2005 — In the first of a two-part update to the U.S. Winter Outlook, NOAA meteorologists predict this winter to be warmer than the 30 year norm, yet cooler than last year. NOAA's heating degree day forecast for December, January and February projects a 0.7 percent warmer winter than the 30 year normal, but 6.5 percent cooler than last year. Therefore, people can expect, on average, more cooler days this winter than last. (Click NOAA image for larger view of forecast winter temperatures for the USA. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.)
the absence of El Niño and La Niña this year's winter
outlook presents a challenge to seasonal forecasters," said Jim
Laver, director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "Shorter
term climate fluctuations that are best predicted week-by-week are expected
to play the dominate role on the weather patterns this winter,"
The precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-average conditions across most of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, Hawaii and northwestern Alaska. The remainder of the country has equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation. (Click NOAA image for larger view of forecast winter precipitation for the USA. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.)
chance, either for temperature or precipitation, is predicted when there
is no strong or consistent climate signal for either an above or below
normal conditions during the season. The prediction for areas of "equal
chances" means there is a 50 percent chance for either an above-normal
or below-normal forecast.
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources.
Relevant Web Sites