BONNIE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED, CONTINUING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE;
HURRICANE CHARLEY HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

Aug. 11, 2004 — At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 27.4 north, longitude 88.4 west or about 260 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Fla. Bonnie is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, Bonnie is expected to make landfall along the central panhandle of Florida Thursday morning, according to the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Tropical Storm Bonnie taken at 11:15 p.m. EDT on Aug. 11, 2004. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indicate that Bonnie has become somewhat disorganized and that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible prior to landfall, and Bonnie may briefly become a hurricane on Thursday. (Click NOAA Tropical Storm Bonnie tracking map for larger view.)

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles mainly to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the hurricane hunter is 1007 mb, 29.74 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. Storm surge flooding could be 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in Apalachee Bay.

Additional rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts, can be expected in association with Bonnie.

Isolated tornadoes are also possible through Thursday over the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of the Florida panhandle and northwest Florida from Destin eastward to the mouth of the Suwannee River. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remain in effect for the western Florida panhandle from west of Destin westward to the Alabama/Florida border.

HURRICANE CHARLEY HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Charley was located near latitude 17.8 north, longitude 78.7 west or about 195 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman. Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. On this track, the center of the hurricane will be passing near or over the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Rain bands with tropical storm force winds in squalls will continue to affect much of Jamaica during the next several hours. These conditions will begin to spread over the Cayman Islands early Thursday. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Hurricane Charley taken at 11:15 p.m. EDT on Aug. 11, 2004. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Charley has not strengthened, and maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph with higher gusts. However, conditions appear to be favorable for intensification.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. (Click NOAA Hurricane Charley tracking map for larger view.)

Minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was 993 mb, 29.32 inches.

Above normal tides, accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves, are likely along the coasts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through Thursday morning.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch remains in effect for the following provinces of western Cuba: Pinar del Rio, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth. This watch will probably be changed to a hurricane warning early Thursday.

At 11 p.m. EDT, the hurricane watch was extended northward along the west coast of Florida to Anna Maria Island. A hurricane watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Dry Tortugas to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay and from Flamingo northward to Anna Maria island. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours. A hurricane warning will likely be issued for a portion of the Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida early Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by NOAA National Weather Service local forecast offices and statements from local emergency management officials.

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Relevant Web Sites
NOAA National Hurricane Center — Get the latest advisories here

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NOAA Atlantic Hurricanes Database — 150 Years of Atlantic Hurricanes

Above-normal 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

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NOAA Inland Flooding Information

Significant River Flood Outlook

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24-hour Observed Precipitation as of 8 a.m. today

Latest rainfall data as of 8 a.m. EDT today

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Media Contact:
Frank Lepore, NOAA Hurricane Center, (305) 229-4404