LILI STRIKES WESTERN CUBA AND GETS STRONGER

(See NOAA's National Hurricane Center for the latest information on this storm. Complete advisories are posted at 11 a.m., 5 p.m., 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. All times are Eastern. Advisories are posted more frequently as the storm nears the USA mainland.)

October 1 , 2002 — At 11 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Lili was located near latitude 21.8 north, longitude 83.7 west or about 20 miles east-southeast of Cabo Frances in western Cuba. This position is also about 115 miles southwest of Havana, Cuba. Lili is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of Lili across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday afternoon, according to the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Hurricane Lili taken at 11:15 a.m. EDT on Oct. 1, 2002. Click here to see latest view. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lili could become a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale later Tuesday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 971 mb, 28.67 inches. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Hurricane Lili taken at 8:15 a.m. EDT on Oct. 1, 2002.)

A storm surge of 8 to 10 ft above normal tide levels, along with battering waves, can be expected along the south coast of western Cuba Tuesday. Rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated higher amounts, are likely near the path of Lili. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in mountainous areas.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Ciudad de La Habana, La Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozumel to Progreso. A hurricane watch may be required for portions of the northwestern and northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico later Tuesday. Interests in these area should monitor the progress of Lili.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by NOAA National Weather Service local forecast offices.

Click NOAA tracking map for larger view.

Relevant Web Sites
NOAA's National Hurricane Center — Get the latest advisories here

NOAA's Atlantic Hurricanes Database — 150 Years of Atlantic Hurricanes

El Niño Expected to Impact Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA Reports

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

NOAA's River Forecast Centers

NOAA's Flood Products

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24-hour Observed Precipitation as of 8 a.m. today

Latest rainfall data as of 8 a.m. EDT today

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NOAA's Hurricanes Page

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Media Contact:
Frank Lepore, NOAA's National Hurricane Center, (305) 229-4404