LILI CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND TAKING AIM ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN CUBA

(See NOAA's National Hurricane Center for the latest information on this storm. Complete advisories are posted at 11 a.m., 5 p.m., 11 p.m. and 5 a.m. All times are Eastern. Advisories are posted more frequently as the storm nears the USA mainland.)

September 30, 2002 — At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Lili was located near latitude 20.7 north, longitude 81.5 west or about 110 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Lili is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track, the center of Lili should pass very close to the Isle of Youth Tuesday morning, according to the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of Hurricane Lili taken at 11:15 p.m. EDT on Sept. 30, 2002. Click here to see latest view. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lili could become a Category 2 hurricane—as measured by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale—before making landfall over the Isle of Youth or western Cuba.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 978 mb, 28.88 inches.

Storm surge of 8 to 10 feet above normal tide levels, along with battering waves, can be expected along the south coast of western Cuba on Tuesday. Heavy rains continue across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and eastern Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated higher amounts, can be expected near the path of Lili.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Ciudad de La Habana, La Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the rest of Cuba. A hurricane warning remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands. However, these warnings may be discontinued by Friday morning. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cozumel to Progreso.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by NOAA National Weather Service local forecast offices.

Click NOAA tracking map for larger view.

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NOAA's National Hurricane Center — Get the latest advisories here

NOAA's Atlantic Hurricanes Database — 150 Years of Atlantic Hurricanes

El Niño Expected to Impact Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA Reports

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Media Contact:
Frank Lepore, NOAA's National Hurricane Center, (305) 229-4404