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A HISTORIC LOOK BACK AT WEATHER FORECASTING

Jan. 7, 2002 —

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CALL OUT BOX: What's the difference between weather prediction and climate prediction? "Weather" is the day-to-day variability in temperature and precipitation. Weather applies to individual events such as snowstorms, cold air outbreaks, etc. "Weather forecasts" have skill up to several days in advance. NOAA meteorologists quantify relevant parameters during the forecast period (e.g., how warm, how cold, how much rain). "Climate," on the other hand, is the average of weather events over a month, season (or longer). "Climate forecasts" involve the prediction of monthly or seasonal averages. By their very nature, climate forecasts are specified by the likelihood that temperature or precipitation will be above, near or below- normal.

OR Did you know? A recent study found that the long-range predictions issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for the 1997-1998 El Niño led California to conduct major mitigation efforts leading to a reduction in losses of about $1 billion. One of the main reasons for the development of the modern computer was to forecast weather. The United States has more severe weather than any other country on earth. The Middle Atlantic States and New England region are about the only areas of the world that can have three of the most spectacular storms – tornadoes, hurricanes, and blizzards.